Jemy Finance Market Research Team At Jemy Trade
2025-08-30
In a previous article titled “Is a Major Downturn Ahead for QNB? Jemy Experts’ Bearish Outlook Raises Red Flags,” we pointed out that the long-term trajectory of Qatar National Bank (QNB) stock was facing significant risks. Today, we revisit this analysis to confirm the success of our previous bullish forecast and to delve deeper into the reasons why we now anticipate the next major bearish wave.
Technical Analysis: The Completion of the Bullish Wave and the Beginning of a Complex Corrective Pattern
The technical analysis we provided at the beginning of the year showed that QNB stock was preparing to complete a major bearish corrective wave and that there was a high probability of a subsequent bullish wave. We emphasized that this upward movement would be a strong technical indicator that a larger pattern was starting to form. Indeed, the charts have shown that the stock successfully achieved the upward wave (C) of the larger wave (X), reaching the key resistance levels we had anticipated.
With the completion of this rise, the stock has begun to form a new technical pattern. The current analysis indicates that the stock has entered a complex corrective range, which is expected to take the shape of an “Expanding Diagonal Triangle.” This pattern often precedes significant price movements in the opposite direction, and in this case, it signals the beginning of a major bearish wave.
- The Expected Bearish Scenario: According to this technical pattern, the stock is expected to begin a strong downward wave (Y), followed by a slight upward correction (Z), and then a sharp decline. Most importantly, this bearish path, over the long term, could push the stock to historical low levels, possibly towards the 4-6 Qatari Riyals range as shown on the chart.
Fundamental Analysis: The Bank’s Performance Amid Economic Challenges
Technical analysis alone is not enough to create a complete picture, so we have combined it with the latest fundamental news and data related to Qatar National Bank:
- Strong Financial Results: The bank has announced strong financial performance, recording growth in net profits. This performance reflects the strength of the bank as a leading financial institution in the region. However, these positive results may have already been priced into the stock’s previous upward wave, which explains the lack of continued ascent.
- Growth in the Credit Sector: Reports indicate growth in the bank’s loan and advance portfolio, reflecting confidence in the Qatari economy. However, this growth must be viewed in the context of broader challenges facing global and local markets, which could affect asset quality in the future.
- Economic Challenges: While the Qatari economy remains strong due to the energy sector, volatility in global energy prices and regional competition may put pressure on the banking sector in the long term. This pressure could weaken the stock’s attractiveness to investors despite its strong performance.
Conclusion: Technical and Fundamental Forecasts Support a Bearish Outlook
Based on the interaction between technical and fundamental analysis, it appears that Qatar National Bank (QNB) stock stands at a critical juncture. After technical analysis proved successful in forecasting the bullish wave, it is now strongly pointing to a major bearish wave on the horizon. Despite the bank’s strong financial performance, the complex technical patterns raise significant questions about its future trajectory. Investors should exercise extreme caution, as the stock may be about to begin a long-term downward cycle.
